Is Guyana’s Economic Expansion a Story with Two Sides?

Though still in its embryonic stages, the story of development from Guyana's petroleum industry seems one with two sides. Not long after the country started commercial oil production in 2019, the economy took off. Since then, the succeeding years saw Guyana characterized as the “world’s fastest growing economy” or at least one of the fastest growing economies globally. Only recently, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) again in its October 2026 Article IV Consultation noted that Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund accumulated around US $3.3 billion, over 12% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by the end of 2025. The review cited real GDP growth of 19.3% in 2025, with 22.3% projected for 2026. Oil output is up to around 900,000 barrels a day; the revenues from which reportedly helped narrow the overall fiscal deficit to some 5.5% of GDP in 2025.  Since 2020, every annual national budget presented in Guyana’s National Assembly was cited as "historic" or "the largest in Guyana's history" by the government and the media. Each consecutive budget broke the previous year's spending record with significant spending increases on social programs and public infrastructure investments. The Local Content framework has encouraged and supported significant business expansion. The services sector alone grew by about 8% in 2025. Inflation reportedly only rose about half the pace seen in comparable economies. Guyana reported an average inflation rate of 3.3% in 2025. In 2026, inflation is projected to be about 4.1%.

Guyana’s Minister of Finance, Dr. Ashni Singh keenly highlighted in the 2026 Mid-Year Report and Budget presentations that the non-oil economy also grew by about 14.3%. This growth marks consecutive years of non-oil expansion reportedly driven by growth in the construction, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and the services sectors. Government officials make the case that Guyana is avoiding "Dutch Disease" by expanding traditional and non-oil sectors in tandem with petroleum. They tout the rapid broad-based growth, fiscal discipline, and what they see as "people-centered" transformation that ensures income growth and infrastructure benefits are felt across the country under the "One Guyana" social cohesion agenda. In fact, the 2026 National Budget was themed, "Putting People First". And only recently, Guyana’s President, Dr. Irfaan Ali, in public statements and social media posts conceded that, “the challenge before us is not simply to grow the economy, it is to build an economy in which more Guyanese can participate, more businesses can prosper, and more families can enjoy the benefits of development.” The IMF Executive Board even commended the good stewardship of Guyana’s economy that produced one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the hemisphere.

Where is the disconnect between what policymakers claim they’re doing and what some citizens see themselves as benefiting from? 

But that’s only one side of the story. When we ghaff with vendors in the community markets, or taxi drivers and mini-bus operators at the car parks, or farmers in parts of Essequibo, or teachers in and out of the classroom, or frustrated house-lot applicants waiting at Guyana’s Ministry of Housing, or read the opposition media, we get a slightly different picture. Their issues run the gamut. Concerns about noticeable price increases across a broad swath of basic household commodities from fresh fruits and vegetables to gas at the pump have even become the subject of satirical skits by local content creators. The complaints are that cost of living continues to increase beyond the reach of many in the “oil rich economy.” Critics often attack the President’s initiative, “One Guyana” as catering only to the “friends, family, and favorites” of government officials, the wealthy, and well-connected. Widespread claims of corruption, housing shortages and extended wait time for house-lot allotment, poor public services, and enrichment of politically connected groups. Consistent with Guyana’s long history of ethnic-political tensions, analysts observe that the historic patterns of business ownership and access to capital allow some groups more leverage than others with respect to exploiting the opportunities arising from the oil sector driven economic growth. By the same token, labor market conditions improved. Available data shows a decline in the unemployment rate from 12.8% in 2020 to 6.2% in 2025. Employment on the other hand rose by nearly 60 percent, driven by expansion in construction, education, and mining sectors. In the IMF’s assessment, the respective sectoral growth combined with the various transfers helped raise disposable incomes and reduce poverty. In other words, the policies are working. Among the IMF's policy recommendations is an encouragement to Guyana’s leadership to “strengthen governance, procurement, and audit transparency, especially in the oil sector and public enterprises… to support social inclusion, competitiveness, and diversification.”

So then, while the two sides to Guyana’s development story may exist, it seems those sides are less contradictory than is perceived and often articulated. They measure different things. In fact, it seems there is a disconnect between what policy makers are implementing and how sections of the citizenry perceive access to the benefits of public programs. The IMF, World Bank and other similar institutions often measure aggregates of output, reserves, debt, and average incomes. Citizens on the other hand, experience price increases in the grocery store, stalled house-lot distributions, rent increases, transportation fare increases, perceptions of rigged public procurement and contracts tendering processes, and even who gets access. Consider this! Could both things be true? Where is the disconnect between what policymakers claim they’re doing and what some citizens see themselves as accessing or benefiting from? There is no question about whether Guyana’s economy is growing or even the rate of growth. Even the President seems to find a challenge though with whether transparency, oversight, and fair access to the country’s resources will even-out some more before the income gap solidifies.